The Epistemology of Overconfidence
In this talk, I begin by distinguishing three forms of overconfidence: overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision. Of these, overprecision (inflated confidence in the accuracy of our knowledge or predictions) is the most robust and least understood. I document its role in self-assessment, test performance, and macroeconomic forecasts. This leads to an epistemological exploration regarding what it means to be overprecise: the challenge of being both wrong and knowing it; that is, holding beliefs about which one is appropriately skeptical, and well-calibrated about the possibility that ones beliefs are incorrect. I then offer a new theory to account for the evidence and test some of its novel predictions.
Room:
1104
Event Type:
Colloquium
Location:
Berkeley Way West
Date:
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Time:
12:10:00
To:
13:15:00
Event Sponsor:
Personality and Social Research, Institute of
Event Speakers:
Don Moore